As we close out 2025, most advertisers are exhausted. Q4 budgets are drained, and the natural instinct is to pull back on spend for the first few weeks of January.
This is a mathematical error.
Data from the full 2025 calendar year reveals that the first two weeks of January (often called Q5) consistently deliver the lowest CPMs and highest relative engagement of the entire year.
While your competitors are recovering from the holiday rush, the auction pressure on TikTok drops significantly, yet user activity remains at peak levels due to New Year motivation and new device activation.
If you are planning a New Year’s Sale for January 2026, you shouldn’t just be asking if you should run ads. You need to know exactly what numbers to hit.
This guide breaks down the hard data, verified 2025 benchmarks for CPM, CPC, and ROAS, to give you a precise target for your January campaigns.
Quick Summary
- The Q5 Discount: Historically, CPMs (Cost Per Mille) drop by 30–40% in the first two weeks of January compared to December peaks. Expect to pay $3–$6 CPM instead of Q4’s $10+.
- The ROAS Target: While the global average ROAS is 2.5, Resolution categories (Health, Finance, Organization) often see a 4.0+ ROAS in early January due to high intent.
- Spark Ads Efficiency: In 2025, Spark Ads reduced CPA (Cost Per Acquisition) by 37% compared to standard ads. Use them exclusively for your sale.
- The Bounce Risk: Conversion rates can dip slightly in January as users window shop with less disposable cash. Counter this with high-value bundles rather than single items.
1. The Cost Benchmarks: What You Will Pay in Jan 2026
To budget effectively, you need to know the price of traffic. Based on Q1-Q4 2025 performance data, here is what the auction landscape looks like for the upcoming month.
CPM (Cost Per 1,000 Impressions)
December 2025 Peak: $9.50 – $14.00 (High competition)
January 2026 Forecast: $3.50 – $6.50 (Low competition)
Insight: Your budget will stretch 2x further in January. A $1,000 spend will get you roughly 200,000 impressions in January, compared to only 100,000 in December.
CPC (Cost Per Click)
Benchmark: $0.45 – $0.85
Context: This is significantly cheaper than Meta (Facebook/Instagram), which is projected to hover around $1.20+ for the same period.
Pro Tip: If your CPC exceeds $1.00 in January, your creative hook is failing. The traffic is cheap; if you are paying a premium, it’s because users are ignoring your video.
2. ROI by Category: Who Wins the Resolution Lottery?
Not all industries perform equally in January. The New Year, New Me mindset creates a massive spike in specific sectors. Here is the verified ROAS data from similar periods in 2025.
The Winners (ROAS 3.0 – 5.0+)
- Health & Wellness: Supplements, workout apps, and hydration multipliers see the highest intent.
- Why: Urgency is at an all-time high. Users are desperate to fix their holiday binge eating.
- Digital Products / Education: Language apps, finance courses, and career coaching.
- Data: These sectors saw a 22% lower CPA in Jan 2025 compared to the yearly average.
- Organization: Storage bins, planners, and cleaning tools.
The Struggles (ROAS < 1.5)
- Luxury Gifting: Jewelry and high-end accessories crash in January.
- Toys & Games: Parents are spent out on kids.
- Strategy: If you are in these categories, do not run Sales. Run Brand Awareness or educational content to build retargeting pools for Valentine’s Day.
3. Ad Format Performance: Spark Ads vs. Non-Spark
In 2025, the gap between native ads and commercial ads widened. For your New Year Sale, the format you choose dictates your acquisition cost.
| Ad Format | Avg. Conversion Rate (CVR) | CPA Impact |
| Spark Ads (Boosted Posts) | 3.2% – 4.8% | -37% Lower CPA |
| Standard In-Feed Ads | 1.1% – 1.8% | Baseline |
| TopView (Brand Takeover) | 6.5% | Very High Cost (Not ROI focused) |
The Takeaway:
Do not upload a raw video file as an ad. Post it organically on your profile (or a creator’s profile), then use the Spark Code to boost it. The social proof (likes/comments) from the organic post stays attached to the ad, which significantly lowers your CPA.
4. The Hidden Metric: Video View Rate (VVR)
Most advertisers obsess over ROAS, but ROAS is a lagging metric. In January, the leading indicator of success is the 2-Second View Rate.
- The Benchmark: 30%
- The Logic: In January, users are scrolling faster than usual (dopamine seeking). If your video does not hold at least 30% of viewers past the first 2 seconds, the algorithm will penalize you with higher CPMs.
- Optimization: If your ROAS is low, check your 2s View Rate first. If it’s under 20%, stop optimizing your landing page and fix your hook.
5. Budgeting Strategy: The Front-Load Technique
The Q5 efficiency window is short. It typically closes by January 15th, when major brands return from vacation and reactivate their evergreen campaigns.
Recommended Spend Schedule:
- Dec 26 – Jan 7:70% of Budget. (Aggressive Scale).
- Why: Cheapest traffic, highest Resolution intent.
- Jan 8 – Jan 15:20% of Budget. (Retargeting).
- Why: Users who clicked but didn’t buy.
- Jan 16+:10% of Budget. (Maintenance).
- Why: CPMs normalize to Q1 averages.
Explore these helpful articles next:
👉 TikTok Ads Optimization Checklist
👉 Are TikTok Ads Worth It for New Year Sale?
👉 When to Start TikTok Ads for New Year Sale Campaigns
👉 TikTok Spark Ads: Benefits, Setup & Best Use Cases
FAQ: New Year Ads ROI
What is a good ROAS for TikTok in 2026?
For e-commerce, a 2.5 – 3.0 ROAS is considered healthy/profitable. If you are dropshipping or have low margins, you need to aim for 4.0+. However, for subscription products (SaaS/Apps), a 0.8 – 1.0 Day 1 ROAS is acceptable if the Lifetime Value (LTV) pays back within 60 days.
Why is my CPM high in January?
If your CPM is above $10 in January, you have a Creative Fatigue problem. The audience has likely seen your ads too many times, or your Quality Ranking is low (users are hiding/skipping your ad). Refresh your creative immediately.
Should I use Smart+ campaigns for the sale?
Yes. In 2025 beta tests, Smart+ campaigns (fully automated targeting) reduced Cost Per Conversion by 14% during volatile periods like New Year’s. It adapts faster to shifting user interests than manual targeting.
Does New Year creative actually matter?
Yes. Running Christmas creative (red/green colors, gift boxes) in January is the fastest way to kill your ROI. Users subconsciously ignore old content. You must update the visual vibe to Fresh/Clean/Reset on December 26th.
Conclusion
The data for 2026 is clear: January is not a time to pull back. It is a time to double down.
With CPMs projected to be 40% lower than December and conversion intent peaking for self-improvement categories, the Q5 window offers the best mathematical arbitrage of the year.
Your Action Plan:
- Budget: Allocate 70% of your January spend to the first 7 days.
- Format: Use Spark Ads exclusively to lower CPA by 37%.
- Target: Aim for a $4.50 CPM and a 30% Hook Rate.
If you hit these benchmarks, you won’t just start the year with sales; you’ll start it with your most profitable customer cohort of 2026.